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Category Archives: MS Excel
Risky Interviewers (Monte Carlo – Progressive π’s)
Download XLSX (MS Excel 2010+)
This MS Excel file is a self-contained case study exploring how structuring the # of available positions can be helpful or destructive to a company for a given candidate pool.
Recommended for every intelligent hiring manager!
SPOILERS: Under my assumptions, creative firms need only offer 1 position, while standard-intensive firms need to offer more than 1 position in order to reduce mismatch costs.
- Create a Monte Carlo simulation when marginal probabilities (priors) change upon certain triggers (e.g. when you get hired, you get a 10% bonus to the probability of being the top candidate in a future job).
- Reinforcing Bayesian inferences to find that the “experienced” candidates you hire may not be what they seem.
These 2 issues listed above grant you a distinct challenge which you might not find in many other MS Excel learning offerings.
Requirements:
- A basic understanding of Conditional Probabilities (e.g. Multiplicative Identity and Bayes’ Theorem)
- A basic understanding of IF and OR functions
- A good sense of humor!
Love Thy Neighbor (Negotiation – Reservation Pricing)
Welcome to Cask Studies, where you can properly age your skills without getting old. Even sour grapes can become fine wines here.
Love Thy Neighbor (Negotiation – Reservation Price)
Click Here to Download Data (MS Excel 2010+)
A fictional case study by Gregory Taketa. Negotiators and Financiers can enjoy this simple, quickly applicable case of using a financially beneficial asset literally next door: your neighbor! Here, we explore how a lousy water user in a drought (i.e. a Californian) can save money by striking a mutually beneficial deal with a water-conserving neighbor. The frightening thing is that you really can implement this deal within 24 hours!
Bad news: you’re in a drought.
Worse news: you suck at water conservation. You use more than 100 gallons of water daily than your neighbor.
Worst news: the more water you use on average per day, the higher the rates. There is significant pressure to make the highest water users pay outrageously higher rates than their more efficient peers.
But wait! A flash of inspiration: what if you just pay your more virtuous neighbor to use some of their water? Their rates would not go up much higher, and you would rather pay those rates than the nasty ones the Utility Company meant for you.
[End Preview – Please Download the CASE PDF & CASE DATA XLSX near the top of this article to become great at Quantitative Negotiations]
Gom bui!
Linear Regression Without Depression Tutorial
The purpose of this MS Excel-based Linear Regression tutorial is to teach a practitioner for a non-academic organization the basics necessary to form a model, test the model, and refine it. Secondary-school level algebra is required to read a model. Elementary statistics is needed to test a model. We cover the necessary skills step-by-step in the various colored sections.
To expedite the process, certain features which could be taught in an academic setting are omitted (e.g. a calculus and matrix-based proof of how to do linear regression).
By the end of this tutorial, you will be able to:
- Run linear models
- Attempt basic nonlinear models (e.g. power models, binary variables)
- Test the model statistically
- Test the model heuristically
- Apply the practice to business needs
I have written this tutorial on Excel so that you can easily see the data, formulas, charts, and commentaries all on one screen (instead of switching your head from screen to a book all the time).
To use a Linear Regression Package:
Windows/PC: MS Excel has Regression in the Data Analysis Add-On.
Mac: Statplus offers a Regression tool.
R: You can get R for free and use its own regression tool.
Please seek instructions for the respective toolkit to use their Regression application. I will not reinvent the wheel with my own set of instructions.
I have provided quizzes to test your understanding, since we never really know what we “don’t know.” Solutions are provided in a separate file. Good luck! -Gregory Taketa, Data Analyst Extraordinaire
Download:
Linear Regression Without Depression (XLSX)
LRWD Solutions (XLSX)
Gregory Taketa | Gregarious Consulting 