Gregory’s Blog
Research Article Published
My Santa Clara University research team and I have recently gotten our microfinance article published in the inaugural volume of the Journal of International & Interdisciplinary Business Research.
For the uninitiated, microfinance was intended as a form of poverty alleviation to lend to projects and enterprises who could not qualify for traditional loans or could not handle the high interest rates (in some countries, 200% per annum is not unusual). There are reportedly over 12,000 Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) around the world today (MIX Market Database).
Historically, lenders have still been able to enjoy great interest rates, and default rates have overall been impressively low. However, in recent times, default rates have slowly cropped up in some locations around the world, and there is concern that higher interest rates to compensate for growing defaults could lead to a vicious circle.
Using the massive MIX Market Database of over 1,000 Micro Finance Institutions, we have employed linear regression and Granger causality to find that loan-loss rates have driven yield rates more than the inverse (in English, you could loosely say that lenders have been more sensitive to raising rates in the face of defaults than borrowers have been in defaulting in the face of higher rates). We infer that borrowers (who are mostly female, by the way) have been blithely accepting costly terms or still lack financing alternatives for bargaining power.
I would like to thank my teammates and supervising professor for this opportunity to put data analysis to use in a wonderful humanitarian topic:
- Dr. Hoje Jo, Finance, Santa Clara University
- Andrea Joyce
- Kathryn Leahy
- Casey Pack
- Jeffrey Tucker
DEAL DECORATOR: Negotiations are not about “agreement”
Any average Joe can tell you that negotiations are about securing agreement so that the other party can do something you would not do by yourself. The classic example is that you negotiate the purchase of a house because you certainly don’t want to build the house on your own.
That definition is too narrow! Way too narrow! I’ll tell you why:
Suppose you employ 2 sales reps: Abe & Babs (the beauty of seeing this in writing is that you wouldn’t confuse their names as easily as if they were spoken).
Abe has a 90% closing rate. Babs has a 10% closing rate. Wow, Abe must be far better than Babs, right?
WRONG!
Abe does close 9 out of 10 sales, but each of those sales is barely above the reservation price (the minimum the sales rep would accept). Abe is instructed by his manager never to go below $1,000, which is the variable cost of the solution. Abe accepts offers at $1,010 for 9 times for a total of $90 operating profit.
Babs does close 1 out of 10 sales, but she refused 8 of those fellows who bid low at $1,010. The 9th caught on and offered $1,100 because he really needed Babs’ help. Babs agreed, and she scored $100 operating profit.
Traditional thinking teaches us to be like Abe: An offer of $1,010 provides $10 incremental profit, so the rational choice is to take it. It’s better than making nothing, which is the direct alternative. Most people would have found Babs to be ludicrous in refusing a deal in the positive ZOPA (zone of potential agreement), since she missed out $10 profit 8 times.
What Abe doesn’t realize is that his agreement with 1 person affects his agreements with others. Since the 1st buyer got the solution cheap, he referred Abe to like-minded people. They might have needed the solution more badly, but it doesn’t matter: they have been educated to bid low based on the first person.
Babs educated her buyers differently. She knew that people talk, and money talks. When the 1st 8 found that Babs would refuse a low bid, the 9th buyer, who was very desperate and could not be so price-sensitive, decided to offer a higher price. In Babs’ specific case, her 1 big profit trumped Abe’s 9 small profits.
This is not to say that Babs’ method always beats Abe’s. It depends on the situation. But Babs saw the big picture and got better results.
Being the better negotiator here was not about securing agreement but doing what seemed best for herself in the long-term.
So a more expansive (and common-sensible) definition of negotiation would be: doing what is best for yourself by helping selective others in selective ways, while refusing (usually politely) those who cannot produce a win-win in the long run.
Some of you in sales management can see a potential problem: what if Abe’s and Babs’ territories were close to each other? Abe’s low prices could adversely affect Babs’ future trials at charging higher prices with willing buyers. Ironically, Babs’ greatest competitor would not be your company rival but your own sales force! Babs’ actions can benefit Abe’s, but not the other way around. And often your revenues can be killed by your own weakest links rather than your traditional competition.
At this juncture, you could choose to put someone like Abe in a sales force for a tiered, low-priced product (the crimped version), or you might have to transfer him out of sales. Or, if you think he has the potential to change, you can have Abe work with the Deal Decorator to his jalopy-quality sales into a luxury sedan performance!
In Loving Memory of Kappa Maki Taketa, June 10, 2001 – May 6, 2013
Kappa Maki Taketa, the first Taketa family dog to be raised from a puppy, has passed on due to long-term pains from an advanced meningioma. He was surrounded by loved ones in his final moments and experienced a peaceful transition.
In everybody’s mind, Kappa was the favorite family member. He was a gentle, caring, gregarious soul who protected others and comforted others in times of need. He was playful and very intelligent. He bore the loveable traits of any dog, or human.
Kappa had painful setbacks in his life, some of which most people I know would never experience. He kept his spirits and love high no matter what happened. He accepted reality for what it was and made the most of it. He made the most of every day (in his last days he made a point to stay outdoors more often than ever before because he knew his days were numbered). He showed loving energy to the very end.
We were very blessed to have had Kappa for the time we did. I am humbled by his tenacity and positive spirit.
FAMILY ADD (5/9): We are very humbled by Kappa’s loving example. In spite of his intense pain in his fight with cancer, he showed more concern and love for the family than himself. He was more than a dog. He was a truly selfless family member. He was well loved.
I can unequivocally say that for the short time this fine dog has had on this earth, he has truly lived more than most I know. Our love for you is forever, Kappa.
We are not requesting any flowers or donations at this time. Your sentiments are more than enough.

