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Risky Interviewers (Monte Carlo – Progressive π’s)

Gregory Taketa

Gregory Taketa

Gregory Taketa is the Data Decanter, serving refined, well-breathed data analysis while keeping out the sediments.

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Download XLSX (MS Excel 2010+)

This MS Excel file is a self-contained case study exploring how structuring the # of available positions can be helpful or destructive to a company for a given candidate pool.

Recommended for every intelligent hiring manager!

SPOILERS:  Under my assumptions, creative firms need only offer 1 position, while standard-intensive firms need to offer more than 1 position in order to reduce mismatch costs.

  • Create a Monte Carlo simulation when marginal probabilities (priors) change upon certain triggers (e.g. when you get hired, you get a 10% bonus to the probability of being the top candidate in a future job).
  • Reinforcing Bayesian inferences to find that the “experienced” candidates you hire may not be what they seem.

These 2 issues listed above grant you a distinct challenge which you might not find in many other MS Excel learning offerings.


  • A basic understanding of Conditional Probabilities (e.g. Multiplicative Identity and Bayes’ Theorem)
  • A basic understanding of IF and OR functions
  • A good sense of humor!

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